The Disaster Domino Effect

A severe, but local disaster, can have unexpected repercussions reaching to distant locations, even months or years later. Let’s call this phenomenon the ‘disaster domino effect‘. A good example is found in the Fukushima tidal wave and nuclear power plant disaster. The immediate effects of this event were local: devastating flooding along the coastline and a release of radioactive material into the air and water. Fukushima is one of the most recent “severe but local” disaster events. But this article is about subsequent effects, short and long term, near and far, that one might not expect from the local nature of the disaster.

One immediate effect, that many people would not expect, was a disruption in the food distribution system. In Tokyo, which was not much affected by the tidal wave or the radioactive fallout, grocery stores quickly sold out of food. Restaurants and stores could not get new shipments of food in the short term, and so they closed. People had to survive on whatever food they had in their homes, until the food distribution system recovered.

Think about this for a moment. A city far from the disaster, not substantially affected by it, ran out of commercial sources of food citywide. Tokyo has over 13 million persons. Fortunately, the food distribution system recovered within days, rather than weeks. But what if it took a month to restock stores and restaurants with food. How many persons have 30 days’ worth of food in their homes? And if the situation went on for more than a month, you would have millions of desperate hungry persons in one crowded location.

Another lesson from Fukushima on this point pertains to the nation of Japan’s power supply.

Japan’s Last Nuclear Reactor to Go Off-line, Nation faces electricity shortfalls if nuclear power is not restored

“2 May 2012—Japan’s last operating nuclear reactor, Hokkaido Electric Power Co.’s No. 3 unit, at its Tomari plant in northern Japan, will shut down for a scheduled inspection on 5 May. This will leave Japan without any nuclear-generated power, something that hasn’t happened since the nation’s first commercial plant went on line in 1966.

“Japan has 54 reactors. Aside from the four damaged Fukushima Dai-ichi reactors and several others out of service over safety concerns, the rest lie idle as they undergo government-ordered stress tests—a mandate that followed last year’s massive 11 March earthquake and tsunami.” [IEEE.org]

One severe nuclear power plant disaster resulted in a domino effect, causing the government to shut down, at least temporarily, all other nuclear power plants nationwide. More than a year after the Fukushima disaster, the nation is facing a shortage of electricity as an indirect result. Power shortages of up to 16% are anticipated, especially in summer, when air conditioning use increases demand. So a short-term disaster in one location, can have a significant effect on the quality of life in another area of the country, and in the whole country, even many months later.

Another example of the disaster domino effect was seen with hurricane Katrina. In addition to the short term severe effects of the disaster, and the subsequent economic problems, Katrina permanently displaced tens of thousands of persons, many to near-by States, but some to nearly every State in the Union. Take a look at this map of the nationwide displacement of New Orleans residents. Who could have anticipated that a hurricane would cause such a diaspora? The immediate and local effects of a hurricane, even a severe one, are well-known. But sometimes a severe local disaster has long-lasting and far-reaching effects that few, if any, persons anticipate.

- Thoreau