Of all the possible SHTF scenarios that we might face, here in the United States, in the near future, one of the most likely is a food and agriculture disaster. Agriculture is the foundation of modern civilization. Yet the amount of land used for growing crops in the U.S. is steadily decreasing, and our reliance on imported foods is ever increasing. This is a recipe for disaster. Other nations will certainly use the food that they produce for their own populations, rather than exporting it to us, if there is a food shortage for any reason. The U.S. should be prepping for disaster, just as individuals prep. We should be focusing on self-reliance as a nation, as well as individuals.
Over the course of 30 years, 1982 to 2012, the U.S. has lost 24.5 million acres of agricultural land [Farmland Statistcs]. It takes about an acre of cropland to feed one person, so we have lost enough land to feed about 25 million persons. If this process continues, we will not be able to feed our own population. We will become dependent on imported food.
Some assessments of our farmland put the total at over 900 million acres. But that is a vast overestimate. The USDA says that the total cropland used for crops is about 335 million acres (2007), while land used for pasture and range for cattle is about 614 million acres (2007) [USDA ERS Major Land Uses]. And the value of 335 million acres has certainly decreased since 2007.
U.S. population is currently 323 million persons [Census.gov]. So at this point in time, we theoretically have enough land to feed our own population, just barely. As the population increases, and the farmland decreases, that situation will change. We are about at the tipping point right now.
The California drought is also making U.S. agriculture more fragile. California uses about 8 million acres of land for crops, which is about 2.4% of the total U.S. cropland used for crops. We cannot afford to lose that much land from our agricultural system. But the drought has continued for so long that CA agriculture is now probably beyond saving. It’s just a matter of time.
Why is U.S. farmland being converted to other uses? Money. Cheap imported food keeps farmers from making a decent profit for the work of feeding the nation. If the land is needed for development (housing, roads, businesses), it becomes more valuable to develop than to farm. This process will continue, unless the nation makes a conscious effort to retain and increase the land used for agriculture. Unfortunately, it will probably take a disaster of epic proportions and consequent food shortages to bring about this type of change.
- Thoreau
