Global Pandemic Possible: two new viruses threaten


In a few previous posts, I’ve been cautioning everyone about the possibility of an epidemic, or even a pandemic, caused by a new bird flu virus: H7N9. See my posts: The Latest Bird Flu Threat: H7N9 and Update on the Bird Flu Threat. Am I exaggerating the danger? Not really. The World Health Organization is saying this virus poses a serious threat. The CDC admits that this version of the flu has the potential to become a pandemic. According to the WHO, so far there are 131 confirmed cases and 36 fatalities, for a fatality rate of 27%.

So far, the virus has not spread widely enough to cause an outbreak. There are a limited number of sporadic cases. But if the virus spreads widely, the result could be very serious. The 1918 Spanish flu killed tens of millions of persons worldwide, with an overall fatality rate estimated at between 10 and 20% (Wikipedia). The H7N9 bird flu has a higher fatality rate than the Spanish Flu, which killed 50 to 100 million persons.


Now for the bad news. A worse virus is threatening the world. It is a corona-type virus, like the SARS virus not so many years ago. It began in the Middle East, so it is being called “Middle East respiratory syndrome Corona Virus” or MERS-CoV for short. So far there have been 49 confirmed cases and 27 deaths, for a fatality rate of over 55%. Fifty-five percent of all persons infected have died. For vulnerable segments of the population, the rate would be even higher. The fatality rate of the bubonic plague, if an outbreak were to occur today, is estimated at about 24%. And please take note of the fact that, when there are only a few cases of a disease, the individuals can all receive intensive medical treatment at hospitals. But if a pandemic strikes, there will not be enough hospital resources. So the fatality rate will climb if the number of cases becomes very high. This New SARS-like virus is a ‘threat to the entire world’.

In my humble opinion, a global pandemic is one of the most likely severe disaster scenarios. SHTF is too mild a term. TEOTWAWKI.

– Thoreau

2 Responses to Global Pandemic Possible: two new viruses threaten

  1. Scary stuff for sure. Many may want to try to bugout in a situation like that, head for the hills to escape hotzones of infection. I’d think there would be quarantined areas with strict travel restrictions in the worst areas, and County Sheriffs might be deputizing people to man roadblocks in more secluded areas to avoid infection in their communities. What to do in that situation? Band together in the boonies to turn back the outsiders, or hunker down and every family for themselves?

    I’d bet bucks/bullion/bribes might be more effective than beans in a pandemic. Getting in, out, or just to the front of the line might be the key to surviving.

  2. Interesting article! Recently after reading one of your posts, I decided to go back and read “The Hot Zone.” What a fantastic read. I’ve just started reading “Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic.” I used to think that currency / economic collapse was our greatest TEOTWAWKI concern. Right now I feel (of course, I don’t *know*) that the greatest concern is about 50/50 between economic and pandemic.